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Un monde presque parfait

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Odile Chagny

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Valerie Chauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Gael Dupont

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Elena Stancanelli

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor)

Abstract

In 2003, the world economy picked up again, after a bout of weakness in the first half of the year. Pulled by the US and the UK, growth spread to Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. It should stay over 4% in 2004 and 2005. The US should see their disequilibria (public and current deficits, household indebtedness) diminish. Growth should slow down from 4.5% in 2004 to 3.4% in 2005. By contrast, the euro zone should grow by only 1.4% and 2.1% in 2004 and 2005. The impact of the recent appreciation of euro (– 1 point of GDP growth in 2004) and a restrictive policy mix should hinder growth, whereas the economic situation — a trough as deep as in the early 80s and early 90s — should require an expansionary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Gael Dupont & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Veroni , 2004. "Un monde presque parfait," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03462298, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03462298
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.089.0013
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03462298v1
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Xavier Timbeau & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Gael Dupont & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Veroni , 2004. "Un monde presque parfait," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03462298, HAL.
    • Xavier Timbeau & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Gael Dupont & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Veroni , 2004. "Un monde presque parfait," Post-Print hal-03462298, HAL.
    • Xavier Timbeau & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Gael Dupont & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Veroni , 2004. "Un monde presque parfait," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03462298, HAL.

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