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Tensions under control
[Pressions dominées]

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Odile Chagny

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Valerie Chauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Gael Dupont

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Elena Stancanelli

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor)

Abstract

Output growth is robust in almost all areas of the world, with world GDP expected to rise by 5% in 2004 and 4% in 2005. Growth will remain buoyant in emerging Asian economies although it is expected to slightly decelerate under the effects of the recent strong increases of oil and industrial raw materials prices. The effect of oil prices on industrial economies will be limited, with US output growth to be cut by 0.3% this year. US monetary conditions will remain accommodative despite rising interest rates, while the fiscal stance will become slightly restrictive in 2005. US GDP will rise by 3.5%, the imbalances on the US budget and current accounts remaining unchanged. Euro area GDP growth will reach 2.4 %, with monetary policy staying accommodative at the area level and the fiscal stance being almost neutral.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Gael Dupont & Amel Falah & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Veroni , 2004. "Tensions under control [Pressions dominées]," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03458794, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03458794
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.091.0011
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458794v1
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