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Evidence Collection and Inductive Inference

Author

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  • Xiangyu Qu

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We study a two-period model where the decision in the second period is based on the ex ante test choice. Individuals are assumed to rank pairs of an option and a trial, where an option is a finite subset of alternatives that represents second period possible choices, and a trial is a finite subset of tests that renders the information of alternatives. Several axioms yield a numerical representation through a credence function as follows. The credence function assigns numbers to alternative-test pairs. The credence number attached to an alternative-test pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the test renders to the plausibility of the alternative. Given a trial, each alternative is assessed according to the sum of credence numbers over tests in the trial. A pair of an option and a trial is therefore ranked according to the maximum sum of credence numbers among the option with respect to the trial.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiangyu Qu, 2020. "Evidence Collection and Inductive Inference," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02973213, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-02973213
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.712.0349
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    Keywords

    evidence collection; case-based reasoning; complexity; ex ante hedonic preference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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