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A New Estimation Of The Size Of Informal Economy Using Monetary And Full Expenditures In A Complete Demand System
[Une évaluation de la taille de l'économie informelle par un système complet de demande estimé sur données monétaires et temporelles]

Author

Listed:
  • Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christophe Starzec

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François Gardes

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

We use the demand system approach to estimate the size of informal economy in Turkey following the methodology based on the analysis of the individual consumption behaviour proposed by Pissarides, Weber [1989], Lyssiotou et al. [2004] and Fortin et al. [2009]. We extend this method by taking into account both the monetary expenditures and time spent on domestic activities. The necessary information of money and time inputs in consumption on the household's level is obtained by a statistical match of the Turkish Family Budget and Time Use surveys [2006]. As expected, the estimated model size of the informal economy in Turkey using the full (time plus money) expenditure is higher than those obtained by only monetary expenditure approach (in average 40.6 % and 33.5 % of gdp for self employers and 20.7% and 14.1% of gdp for wage-earners respectively) and also higher than that obtained by more conventional macroeconomic methods (35.1%).

Suggested Citation

  • Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes & Christophe Starzec & François Gardes, 2014. "A New Estimation Of The Size Of Informal Economy Using Monetary And Full Expenditures In A Complete Demand System [Une évaluation de la taille de l'économie informelle par un système complet de dem," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01307146, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01307146
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01307146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Panayiota Lyssiotou & Panos Pashardes & Thanasis Stengos, 2004. "Estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 622-640, July.
    2. Fethi Ogunc & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2000. "Estimating The Underground Economy In Turkey," Discussion Papers 0004, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Nurhan Davutyan, 2008. "Estimating the size of Turkey's informal sector: an expenditure‐based approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 261-271.
    4. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    5. Thomas, Jim, 1999. "Quantifying the Black Economy: 'Measurement without Theory' Yet Again?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 381-389, June.
    6. Feinstein, Jonathan S, 1999. "Approaches for Estimating Noncompliance: Examples from Federal Taxation in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 360-369, June.
    7. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    8. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    9. Nurhan Davutyan, 2008. "Estimating the size of Turkey's informal sector: an expenditure-based approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 261-271.
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