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Price dynamics on a stock market with asymmetric information

Author

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  • Bernard de Meyer

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

When two asymmetrically informed risk-neutral agents repeatedly exchange a risky asset for numéraire, they are essentially playing an n-times repeated zero-sum game of incomplete information. In this setting, the price Lq at period q can be defined as the expected liquidation value of the risky asset given players' past moves. This paper indicates that the asymptotics of this price process at equilibrium, as n goes to ∞, is completely independent of the "natural" trading mechanism used at each round: it converges, as n increases, to a Continuous Martingale of Maximal Variation. This martingale class thus provides natural dynamics that could be used in financial econometrics. It contains in particular Black and Scholes' dynamics. We also prove here a mathematical theorem on the asymptotics of martingales of maximal M-variation, extending Mertens and Zamir's paper on the maximal L1-variation of a bounded martingale.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard de Meyer, 2010. "Price dynamics on a stock market with asymmetric information," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00625669, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00625669
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2010.01.011
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shino Takayama, 2013. "Price Manipulation, Dynamic Informed Trading and Tame Equilibria: Theory and Computation," Discussion Papers Series 492, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Laraki, Rida & Sorin, Sylvain, 2015. "Advances in Zero-Sum Dynamic Games," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
    3. Hörner, Johannes & Lovo, Stefano & Tomala, Tristan, 2018. "Belief-free price formation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 342-365.
    4. Pierre Cardaliaguet & Catherine Rainer & Dinah Rosenberg & Nicolas Vieille, 2016. "Markov Games with Frequent Actions and Incomplete Information—The Limit Case," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 49-71, February.
    5. Fabien Gensbittel & Christine Grün, 2019. "Zero-Sum Stopping Games with Asymmetric Information," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 277-302, February.
    6. Takayama, Shino, 2021. "Price manipulation, dynamic informed trading, and the uniqueness of equilibrium in sequential trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Pierre Cardaliaguet & Catherine Rainer, 2012. "Games with Incomplete Information in Continuous Time and for Continuous Types," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 206-227, June.
    8. Bernard De Meyer & Gaëtan Fournier, 2015. "Price dynamics on a risk averse market with asymmetric information," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15054, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Shino Takayama, 2018. "Price Manipulation, Dynamic Informed Trading and Tame Equilibria: Theory and Computation," Discussion Papers Series 603, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    10. Fedor Sandomirskiy, 2018. "On Repeated Zero-Sum Games with Incomplete Information and Asymptotically Bounded Values," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 180-198, March.
    11. Fabien Gensbittel, 2015. "Extensions of the Cav( u ) Theorem for Repeated Games with Incomplete Information on One Side," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 80-104, February.
    12. Fedor Sandomirskiy, 2014. "Repeated games of incomplete information with large sets of states," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 43(4), pages 767-789, November.
    13. Bernard de Meyer & Moussa Dabo, 2019. "The CMMV Pricing Model in Practice," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02383135, HAL.
    14. Bernard de Meyer & Moussa Dabo, 2019. "The CMMV Pricing Model in Practice," Post-Print halshs-02383135, HAL.

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