Reflections on the Foundations of Development Policy Analysis

There is a persistent tendency in economic development circles to jump to policy conclusions without entertaining more fundamental explanations of empirical patterns. After reviewing several examples in the field of agricultural development, I provide an alternative paradigm for understanding behavior and organization. Despite the increased sophistication and vast access to data, modern theories and empirical methods have yet to focus adequately on developing fundamental methods for advancing policy analysis through the nature, causes and consequences paradigm. This assessment points to promising avenues for future research. Two such areas singled out for further attention are black hole economics and the coevolution of specialization and economic development.