IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hai/wpaper/200715.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Delaying the Catastrophic Arrival of the Brown Tree Snake to Hawaii

Author

Listed:
  • Kimberly Burnett

    (Department of Economics, University of Puget Sound)

  • James Roumasset

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Yacov Tsur

    (Department of Agricultural Economics & Management, Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Abstract

This paper develops a two-stage model for the optimal management of a potential invasive species. The arrival of an invasive species is modeled as an irreversible event with an uncertain arrival time. The model is solved in two stages, beginning with the post-invasion stage. In this stage, we assume perfect certainty regarding population size and arrivals. The loss-minimizing paths of prevention and control are identified, resulting in a minimized present value penalty associated with the invasion. After calculating this penalty, we analyze the pre-invasion stage and solve for the level of prevention expenditures that will minimize expected total cost. For the case of the Brown Tree Snake potentially invading Hawaii, we find that under a regime of precommitment, pre-invasion expenditures on prevention should be approximately $3.2 million today, decreasing every year until invasion. However, if the planner is permitted to re-evaluate the threat following a non-event, prevention will be lower ($2.96 million a year) and constant until invasion. Once invasion occurs, optimal management requires lower annual expenditures on prevention ($3.1 million) but requires $1.6 million to be spent on control annually to keep the population at its steady state level.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly Burnett & James Roumasset & Yacov Tsur, 2007. "Delaying the Catastrophic Arrival of the Brown Tree Snake to Hawaii," Working Papers 200715, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200715
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_07-15.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mash, Richard, 1999. "Irreversible investment and the expected capital stock with stationary uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 193-196, August.
    2. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
    3. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1999. "The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 339-377, December.
    5. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-233, May.
    6. Knowler, Duncan & Barbier, Edward, 2005. "Importing exotic plants and the risk of invasion: are market-based instruments adequate?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 341-354, February.
    7. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    8. Gollier, Christian & Treich, Nicolas, 2003. "Decision-Making under Scientific Uncertainty: The Economics of the Precautionary Principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 77-103, August.
    9. Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 1987. "Quasi-option value: Some misconceptions dispelled," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 183-190, June.
    10. Claude Henry, 1974. "Investment decisions under uncertainty: The "irreversibility effect"," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/327343, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-283, June.
    12. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francois Salanie & Nicolas Treich, 2009. "Option Value and Flexibility: A General Theorem with Applications," LERNA Working Papers 09.12.288, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    2. Courbage, Christophe & Rey, Béatrice & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Prevention and precaution," IDEI Working Papers 805, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    3. Guillouet, Louise & Martimort, David, 2023. "Acting in the Darkness: Towards some Foundations for the Precautionary Principle," TSE Working Papers 23-1411, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2024.
    4. Meglena Jeleva & Stéphane Rossignol, 2019. "Optimists, Pessimists, and the Precautionary Principle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 367-396, September.
    5. Ingham, Alan & Ma, Jie & Ulph, Alistair, 2007. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5354-5369, November.
    6. Narain, Urvashi & Hanemann, Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2002. "Uncertainty, Learning, and the Irreversibility Effect," CUDARE Working Papers 198691, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Caroline Orset, 2014. "Innovation and the precautionary principle," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 780-801, November.
    8. May Elsayyad & Florian Morath, 2016. "Technology Transfers For Climate Change," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1057-1084, August.
    9. Giovanni Immordino, 2003. "Looking for a Guide to Protect the Environment: The Development of the Precautionary Principle," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 629-644, December.
    10. LANGE Andreas & TREICH Nicolas, 2007. "Uncertainty, Learning and Ambiguity in Economic Models on Climate Policy: Some Classical Results and New Directions," LERNA Working Papers 07.16.237, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    11. Martimort, David & Guillouet, Louise, 2020. "Precaution, Information and Time-Inconsistency: On The Value of the Precautionary Principle," CEPR Discussion Papers 15266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Attanasi, Giuseppe Marco & Montesano, Aldo, 2010. "Testing Value vs Waiting Value in Environmental Decisions under Uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 10-154, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Lontzek, Thomas S. & Narita, Daiju, 2009. "The effect of uncertainty on decision making about climate change mitigation: a numerical approach of stochastic control," Kiel Working Papers 1539, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Giovanni Immordino, 2001. "Choosing between traditional and innovative technologies: the case of scientific uncertainty," CSEF Working Papers 74, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    15. Geoffrey Heal & Bengt Kriström, 2002. "Uncertainty and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 3-39, June.
    16. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Willems, Tim, 2015. "Optimal learning on climate change: Why climate skeptics should reduce emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 17-33.
    17. Liqun Liu & Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Thomas R. Saving, 2019. "Staying the Course or Rolling the Dice: Time Horizon’s Effect on the Propensity to Take Risk," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 66-85.
    18. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    19. Cunha-e-Sa, Maria A. & Santos, Vasco, 2008. "Experimentation with accumulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 470-496, February.
    20. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    catastrophe; hazard function; invasive species; Brown Tree Snake; Boiga irregularis; prevention and control; Hawaii;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200715. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Web Technician (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuhius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.