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Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes

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  • Yuxuan Huang

    (The George Washington University)

Abstract

The USD/CNY exchange rate exhibits very different pattern in different periods as it changes wildly from one period to another according to the economic reforms and policies. This paper compares the performance of six different forecasting models of USD/CNY exchange rate under three different forecast scenarios from 2005-2015. In particular, the paper focuses in answering the following questions. (i) Do models' forecast performance change when the marketization level changes? (ii) Which model has the best forecast when the regimes change? (iii) Can forecasting robustifications help? The forecast results show that models incorporates economic fundamentals perform better in less regulated periods when the exchange rate can oat more freely. For the forecast experiments with breaks in the forecast origin, the exchange rate CVAR model perform the best before robustifications. In most cases, the intercept-correction and doubledifference device improve the forecast performance in both dynamic forecast and one-step forecast. Different models seem to do well under different forecast scenario after applying the robust devices.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuxuan Huang, 2016. "Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes," Working Papers 2016-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-001
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    File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2016-001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jamshed Y. Uppal & Syeda Rabab Mudakkar, 2020. "China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Rise of Yuan–Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 1-26, Jan-June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Forecasting; US Dollar; Chinese Yuan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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