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Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa

Author

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  • Dr Jan Roan Neethling

    (Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Northwest University, South Africa Author-2-Name: Abigail Stiglingh-Van Wyk Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Northwest University, South Africa Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)

Abstract

" Objective - The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the CPI, the brent crude oil price, and the PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate during the past year. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developed countries. The objective is, therefore, to evaluate the effects of the increase in commodity prices on inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Methodology - The study utilised a quantitative methodological approach through the assessment of an econometric model that employed monthly data from January 2017 to May 2022. The paper utilized variables such as CPI, brent crude oil prices, PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Findings - Short- and long-run relationships were established between the variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Johansen co-integration equation methods. The long-run conclusions showed that high brent crude oil prices, high sunflower oil, a depreciating exchange rate and increasingly high PPI levels will lead to an increase in the CPI (Inflation). The results also indicated that oil prices still influence the basic prices of goods and services since all things need to be transported. Novelty - The results of the study showed that a perpetual international and national macro-economic environment is crucial to prevent inflationary pressures and price shocks, while volatile exchange rates unsteady PPI's and significantly high oil and commodity prices causes cost-push inflation. Policy certainty and political stability is important to keep inflation stable and economic growth positive, which could lead to a more self-sufficient economy which are is reliant on political instability as an obstacle for positive future economic growth. Type of Paper - Empirical"

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Jan Roan Neethling, 2022. "Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa," GATR Journals jber231, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber231
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2022.7.3(3)
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Md. Sabbir Hossain & Md. Golam Kibria & Md. Shafiqul Islam, 2018. "Does Globalization Affect the Economic Growth of Bangladesh? - An Econometric Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(12), pages 1384-1393, December.
    2. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price and exchange rate on disaggregation price inflation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Md. Sabbir Hossain & Md. Golam Kibria & Md. Shafiqul Islam, 2018. "Does Globalization Affect the Economic Growth of Bangladesh? - An Econometric Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(12), pages 1384-1393.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian-Ukrainian conflict; economic growth; Brent crude oil prices; PPI; CPI; exchange rates; sunflower oil.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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