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Monetary-Fiscal policies and stock market performance: Evidence from linear ARDL framework

Author

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  • Aref Emamian

    (School of Business and Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, UPM Serdang, 43400, Selangor, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Nur Syazwani Mazlan Author-2-Workplace-Name: School of Business and Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, UPM Serdang, 43400, Selangor, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)

Abstract

Objective - To explore the impacts of monetary and fiscal policies, the appropriateness of both policies and how the stock market is affected by their adoption and implementation in the United States (US). Hence, this study aims to determine the short and long run relationships between monetary and fiscal policies and stock market performance as well as establish potential factors and policies contributing to the highs and lows. Methodology/Technique - We use autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to achieve the objective. In this study, annual time series data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, was used. Findings - The results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real gross domestic product (RGDP) and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of the consumer price index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Novelty - As the US stock market heavily depends on the Tax Revenue in the short run, any changes in TR can impact on the US stock market considerably. Thus, shareholders can benefit from these results when they look at macroeconomic data in order to enhance their investment strategy. Type of Paper - Empirical.

Suggested Citation

  • Aref Emamian, 2021. "Monetary-Fiscal policies and stock market performance: Evidence from linear ARDL framework," GATR Journals jber201, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber201
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2021.5.4(7)
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    3. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    4. El Alaoui, Abdelkader O. & Jusoh, Hashim Bin & Yussof, Sheila Ainon & Hanifa, Mohamed Hisham, 2019. "Evaluation of monetary policy: Evidence of the role of money from Malaysia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 119-128.
    5. Bojan Ilievski, 2015. "Stock Markets and Tax Revenue," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1.
    6. repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:34:p:4439-4454 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2009. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 111-119.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; monetary policy; fiscal policy; the stock market in the United States.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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