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Modelling the development of world records in running

Author

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  • Kuper, Gerard H.
  • Sterken, Elmer

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

We model the development of world records of metric running events from the 100 meter dash to the marathon for men and women. First, we review methods to fit time-series curves of world records in general. We discuss methods to estimate curves and review candidate functional forms that fit the systematic shape of the progress of world records. Next, we fit the asymmetric Gompertz-curves for 16 events and compute implied limit values. In order to assess the implied limits we use the Francis (1943)-model to relate limit records and distance in a log-log specification. We compare men and women and conclude that there is a fixed difference in record times between the two sexes. Finally, using the log-log relationship between time and distance we calculate the development of the world record of the mile in a robustness check.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuper, Gerard H. & Sterken, Elmer, 2006. "Modelling the development of world records in running," CCSO Working Papers 200604, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugccs:200604
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    File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/297681613
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    Cited by:

    1. Franziska K. Kruse & Wolfgang Maennig, 2017. "The future development of world records," Working Papers 061, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.

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