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Predictability of Future Index Returns based on the 52 Week High Strategy

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Listed:
  • Mirela Malin
  • Graham Bornholt

Abstract

In a landmark paper, George and Hwang (2004) show that a stock's 52-week high price largely explains the momentum effect and that a strategy based on closeness to the 52-week high has better forecasting power for future returns than do momentum strategies. We find that the 52-week high strategy is unprofitable when applied to emerging markets indices, and that it is significantly less profitable than the corresponding momentum strategy. Overall the 52-week high effect is not as pervasive as the momentum effect.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mirela Malin & Graham Bornholt, 2009. "Predictability of Future Index Returns based on the 52 Week High Strategy," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:200907, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:gri:fpaper:finance:200907
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    File URL: https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/bitstream/handle/10072/390347/2009-07-predictability-of-future-index-returns-based-on-the-52-week-high-strategy.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richards, Anthony J, 1997. "Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices: Can They Be Explained?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2129-2144, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Chiao Yi Chang & Hsiang-Lan Chen & Wen-Hsiu Kuo, 2017. "The Analysis of 52-Week High Investing Strategy Based on Herding Behavior," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 77-106, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    52-week high; Momentum; Developed and emerging markets; Index returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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