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The decline in the wage share: falling bargaining power of labour or technological progress? Industry-level evidence from the OECD

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  • Guschanski, Alexander
  • Onaran, Özlem

Abstract

We investigate whether the downward trend in the wage share is driven by technological change or a decline in labour’s bargaining power. We present an econometric analysis using industry-level data for 14 OECD countries for the 1970-2014 period and test whether the determinants of the wage share differ between manufacturing and service industries, between workers of different skill groups and across countries with different bargaining regimes. Our findings suggest that the wage share declined due to a fall in labour’s bargaining power driven by offshoring to developing countries and changes in labour market institutions such as union density, social government expenditure and minimum wages. In contrast, the effect of technological change is not robust. While we find evidence for a negative effect on medium-skilled workers, our results cast doubt on the hypothesis of skill-biased technological change.

Suggested Citation

  • Guschanski, Alexander & Onaran, Özlem, 2021. "The decline in the wage share: falling bargaining power of labour or technological progress? Industry-level evidence from the OECD," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 29007, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:29007
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    File URL: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/29007/7/29007%20GUSCHANSKI_The_Decline_in_the_Wage_Share_%28AAM%29_2020.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lilian N. Rolim & Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "Income distribution, productivity growth, and workers’ bargaining power in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 473-516, April.
    2. Federico Riccio & Giovanni Dosi & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2023. "Smile without a reason why: functional specialisation and income distribution along global value chains," LEM Papers Series 2023/31, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2024. "The political economy of complex evolving systems: the case of declining unionization and rising inequalities," LEM Papers Series 2024/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Nikulin Dagmara & Wolszczak-Derlacz Joanna, 2022. "Wage determination, Global Value Chains and role played by wage bargaining schemes: The case of Poland," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 8(4), pages 88-110, December.
    5. Tippet, Benjamin & Onaran, Özlem & Wildauer, Rafael, 2021. "The determinants of wealth inequality in the UK, USA and France," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 31260, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    6. Bellocchi, Alessandro & Marin, Giovanni & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2023. "The labor share puzzle: Empirical evidence for European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Ugur, Mehmet, 2024. "Innovation, market power and the labour share: Evidence from OECD industries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Chris Haun, 2023. "Closing the First Nations Education Gap in Canada: Assessing Progress and Estimating Economic Benefits - An Update," CSLS Research Reports 2023-01, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    9. Guschanski, Alexander & Onaran, Özlem, 2021. "The effect of global value chain participation on the labour share – Industry level evidence from emerging economies," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 31973, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    income distribution; collective bargaining; trade unions; technological change; globalisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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