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What do we know about R&D spillovers and productivity? Meta-analysis on heterogeneity and statistical power

Author

Listed:
  • Ugur, Mehmet
  • Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa
  • Luong, Hoang Minh

Abstract

Endogenous growth theory and the knowledge capital model predict that research and development (R&D) investment is associated with increasing returns and positive externalities. These insights have informed public support for R&D investment directly and indirectly. We aim to establish where the balance of the evidence lies, the extent to which the evidence has adequate statistical power, and which factors may explain the variation in the empirical findings. Drawing on 983 spillovers and 501 own-R&D effect-size estimates from 60 empirical studies, we find that the average productivity effect of spillovers: (i) is smaller than what is reported in most narrative reviews; (ii) is even smaller when only adequately-powered evidence is considered; (iii) differs by spillover types; and (iv) is not larger than that of own-R&D. We also report that the percentage of adequately-powered evidence is low (30%-55%). We highlight the implications of these findings for future research and public policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Ugur, Mehmet & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Luong, Hoang Minh, 2018. "What do we know about R&D spillovers and productivity? Meta-analysis on heterogeneity and statistical power," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 21942, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:21942
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knowledge externalities; R&D spillovers; productivity; public policy; meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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