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Conditions monétaires et activité économique dans la zone euro Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area

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  • Jean-François Goux

Abstract

Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area. With a VAR model, we show that the economies of the euro area are strongly dependent on the monetary conditions (short term interest rate, exchange rate). In the long-run, the industrial activity of the area enters in a co-integrating relation with the euro-dollar real exchange rate, the euribor and the money supply M3 in real terms. In the short-run, the influence of monetary policy shocks and exchange rate shocks determines the evolution of industrial production : it reaches its full effect after about one year ; however, the influence of monetary policy through the rate of intervention of the BCE is three times higher than that of exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Goux, 2003. "Conditions monétaires et activité économique dans la zone euro Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area," Working Papers 0306, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0306
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR model; European economy; money; monetary policy; monetary conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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