Decomposition of Russia’s GDP growth rates, 2015–2016

Russia’s officials made multiple statements in 2015, saying Russia had hit the bottom of its recessionary valley. For example, a few top members of Russia’s government and representatives of the Russian business community (in particular, First Vice-Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Sberbank CEO/Chairman German Gref) said in May 2015 the current crisis in Russia had reached its peak and the economy was expected to see some recovery. In late 2015, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev said the recession was over and the bottom was hit. At the same time, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development (MED) and some other international organizations – such as Bank of America, JP Morgan, IMF and World Bank – upgraded (not for long though) their 2015 forecast for Russia. The Ministry of Economic Development made similar statements, in particular in July and October 2015. Andrei Klepach, Chief Economist of Vnesheconombank, questioned these statements, noting in late August that the bottom was still to be reached, and he expected Russia to continue facing a downturn in investment and construction sectors, while budget and consumer demand ceased to be the drivers of positive growth rates in economy. As early as December, Herman Gref predicted that Russia’s economy would face a downturn in 2016, and then it might “decay” unless across-the-board reforms are undertaken