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Industrial production dynamics in particular sectors of Russian industry

Author

Listed:
  • Idrisov Georgy

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kaukin Andrey

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Ponomarev Yuri

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

Russia’s real economy continued throughout 2015 to accommodate itself to new terms of trade and a new geopolitical context, both of which rendered the dynamics of domestic market’s key indicators less stable and less foreseeable. To make sure that sectoral dynamics are interpreted correctly, analysis of time series in the short term should be attended with seasonal and calendar adjustments. In order to be certain that the available dynamics of industrial production indicates that a period of downturn (or growth) is over, recovery (or slowdown) processes are afoot, monthly series should be decomposed into calendar, seasonal, irregular and trend components.[1] It is the changes of the trend component that should be analyzed in order to provide a substantial interpretation of sectoral trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Idrisov Georgy & Kaukin Andrey & Ponomarev Yuri, 2016. "Industrial production dynamics in particular sectors of Russian industry," Published Papers ppaper-2016-253, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-253
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    File URL: https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/ppaper/ppaper-2016-253.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; Russian industry; industrial production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods

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