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The Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rate in 1999–2015

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Drobyshevsky

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Maria Kazakova

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia’s GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contraction is mostly of structural nature induced by the contraction of labor force and capital, as well as the stagnation of the total factor productivity. Additionally, in 2015, the average annual price of crude oil is more likely to fall below the long-time average annual, thereby making negative the foreign trade component of GDP growth rates. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will remain negative and even lower than that in 2014, being indicative of a stronger cyclical economic contraction in Russia. Therefore, the actual GDP appears to be below the potential value.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova, 2015. "The Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rate in 1999–2015," Published Papers 224, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:ppaper:224
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    File Function: Revised version, 2015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; Russian GDP; decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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