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Trading Volume and Changes in Heterogeneous Expectations

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  • Larry H.P. Lang
  • Robert H. Litzenberger

Abstract

A comparative static analysis of a competitive equilibrium under heterogeneous earn-ings expectations and constant absolute risk aversions demonstrates that unsystem-atic trading volume in response to a public information release is proportional to the change in relative heterogeneity of beliefs and is unrelated to either the dispersion of prior beliefs or the absolute change in the consensus expectation. In contrast, under homogeneous expectations and non-constant absolute risk aversions, total trading volume is a function of the absolute change in the consensus earnings expectation. Using a large number of individual analysts’ annual earnings forecasts, the change in relative heterogeneity and the absolute change in the consensus expectation are measured around interim quarterly earnings reports and shown to possess predicted impacts on trading volume.

Suggested Citation

  • Larry H.P. Lang & Robert H. Litzenberger, "undated". "Trading Volume and Changes in Heterogeneous Expectations," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:06-89
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Li & Geng Li, 2011. "Belief dispersion among household investors and stock trading volume," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Dan Li & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Household Investors Noise Traders: Evidence from Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Dan Li & Geng Li, 2021. "Whose Disagreement Matters? Household Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume [Belief dispersion in the stock market]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1859-1900.

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