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Misinterpreting a Failure to Disconfirm as a Confirmation: A Recurrent Misreading of Significance Tests

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  • Thomas Mayer

Abstract

When a significance test fails to disconfirm a hypothesis economist often interpret this as evidence that this hypothesis is valid. Six such examples are cited from recent journals. But this is a misinterpretation of what significance tests show. Presumably this misinterpretation is founded on the valid principle that every failure to disconfirm a hypothesis adds to its credibility. But that principle defines â??failure to disconfirmâ?? in a way that differs sharply from the way that this phrase is used in the context of significance tests. Some ways of ameliorating this problem exist.
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  • Thomas Mayer, "undated". "Misinterpreting a Failure to Disconfirm as a Confirmation: A Recurrent Misreading of Significance Tests," Department of Economics 01-08, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:01-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology

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