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Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Time Series Models with Threshold

Author

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  • Lubrano, M.

Abstract

This paper considers the Bayesian analysis of threshold regression models. It shows that this analysis can be conducted with simple deterministic numerical integration in one or two dimensions. The shape of the posterior density is greatly determined by the type of threshold and of transition considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Lubrano, M., 1996. "Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Time Series Models with Threshold," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a12, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:aixmeq:96a12
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    Cited by:

    1. Lubrano, Michel, 2004. "Modélisation bayésienne non linéaire du taux d’intérêt de court terme américain : l’aide des outils non paramétriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 465-499, Juin-Sept.
    2. LUBRANO, Michel, 1998. "Smooth transition GARCH models: a Bayesian perspective," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1998066, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    4. Dueker, Michael J. & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2007. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 517-547, December.
    5. LUBRANO, Michel, 2000. "Bayesian non-linear modellings of the short term US interest rate: the help of non-parametric tools," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2000038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Greb, Friederike & Krivobokova, Tatyana & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Munk, Axel, 2011. "On threshold estimation in threshold vector error correction models," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114599, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECONOMETRICS; TIME SERIES; STATISTICS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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