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Syria in the Dark: Estimating the Economic Consequences of the Civil War through Satellite-Derived Night Time Lights

Author

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  • Giorgia Giovannetti
  • Elena Perra

Abstract

The Syrian Civil War has begun in 2011 and is still wrecking enormous damages on the country's economy, with an impressive toll measured in deaths, migration, and the destruction of the Syrian historical heritage and physical infrastructure. This paper examines the impact of the War on Syria's economy from the perspective of outer space, to bypass the issue of data availability due to the inaccessibility of the war-ravaged territory. The estimates obtained in this way are more pessimistic than the ones reported by international organisations. Starting from our estimates, we provide long-term projections for the country's economy, and estimate the window for GDP recovery at the pre-war levels. We discuss geo-political implications which could prevent our projections from happening.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgia Giovannetti & Elena Perra, 2019. "Syria in the Dark: Estimating the Economic Consequences of the Civil War through Satellite-Derived Night Time Lights," Working Papers - Economics wp2019_05.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2019_05.rdf
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    File URL: https://www.disei.unifi.it/upload/sub/pubblicazioni/repec/pdf/wp05_2019.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Syria; War; GDP estimates; Night-Lights;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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