Uzbekistan’s Development Strategies: Past Record and Long-term Options

Uzbekistan became independent in September 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union. The country followed an heterodox approach to macroeconomic stabilization and the transition to the market economy which reduced the depth of the transitional recession experienced by most former socialist countries of Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union. The development strategy it followed between 1995 and 2005 relied mainly on a state-coordinated exploitation of its land, water and mineral resources. Despite sustained growth and some structural transformation, such approach generated a limited number of formal sector jobs due to its high capital-, resource-, and energy- intensity. While poverty declined, the poverty alleviation elasticity of growth remained modest. Two years ago, the country launched the ambitious ‘Uzbekistan Vision 2030’ which aims at reaching by that year the status of upper-middle-income country. In this regard, this paper assesses in detail the achievements and limitations of the policy model adopted till 2012 and proposes two alternative development strategies to reach the targets set by the country’s authorities for 2030.