The guacamole curse: Avocados, crime, and violence in Mexico

There is extensive evidence of the impact of natural resource windfalls on violence. However, most of the literature focuses on civil conflict and civil wars and less is known about how resource booms affect other forms of violence and crime. In this paper, I examine the impact of Mexico’s avocado production boom over the past 30 years on homicides, drug cartel-related attacks, and non-lethal crimes. To estimate the effects of the avocado boom on these forms of violence, I exploit geographic differences in the exogenous suitability of municipalities to produce avocados with movements in the international price of the fruit. The results reveal that, consistent with the opportunity cost mechanism highlighted in the literature, municipalities more suitable for avocado production experienced a reduction in homicides and drug cartel attacks. This effect is primarily driven by the period following the lifting of an 83-year ban on Mexican avocado imports to the United States. However, municipalities that are highly export-oriented did not experience this reduction in violence. Instead, these municipalities have seen an increase in drug cartel attacks and non-lethal crimes, particularly threats and property crimes.