Return to quality in rural agricultural markets: Evidence from wheat markets in Ethiopia

In many Sub-Saharan countries, farmers cannot meet the growing urban demand for higher quality products, leading to increasing dependency on imports. While the literature has focused on production-side constraints to enhancing smallholder farmers’ output quality, there is scarce evidence of market-side constraints. Using a unique sample of 60 wheat markets in Ethiopia, I examine the relationship between the price obtained by farmers and the quality supplied. Using objective and precise measures of observable (impurity content) and unobservable (flour extraction rate and moisture level) quality attributes, no evidence was found of a strong correlation between the two, suggesting that observable attributes cannot serve as proxies for unobservable ones. Transaction prices further reflect this, indicating that, markets only reward quality attributes that are observable at no cost. However, these results hide cross-market heterogeneity. Observable quality attributes are better rewarded in larger and more competitive markets, while unobservable attributes are rewarded in the presence of grain millers and/or farmer cooperatives on the market site. Both regression and machine learning approaches support these findings.