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Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Headey, Derek D.
  • Cho, Ame
  • Lambrecht, Isabel
  • Maffioli, Elisa Maria
  • Toth, Russell

Abstract

Amid extreme uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policymakers have struggled to respond to rapidly changing circumstances with appropriate speed and scale. One policy obstacle is the dearth of real-time indicators of the pandemic’s economic impacts, especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Here we show that an ‘immobility’ indicator from GoogleTM – measuring the extent to which consumers are staying at home more – is a powerful predictor of changes in household poverty in Myanmar, as well as aggregate national consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in cross-country data. Combined, this evidence suggests that real-time mobility indicators have the potential to inform a wide range of policy deliberations, including forecasting models, fine-tuning the timing of both economic stimulus and social protection interventions, and tracking economic recovery from this unprecedented crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Headey, Derek D. & Cho, Ame & Lambrecht, Isabel & Maffioli, Elisa Maria & Toth, Russell, 2021. "Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19," IFPRI discussion papers 2002, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2002
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