Socio-economic, environmental and health impacts of dietary transformation in Bangladesh: A scenario simulation study for the period 2022-2040

Recently, in many low- and middle-income countries, a rise in income, urbanization and a change in lifestyles have resulted in a shift in dietary patterns from mainly staple crops, such as rice, wheat and maize, towards a diet characterized by higher intake of meat, sugar and processed foods. This so-called nutrition transition has led to a situation in many countries that is referred to as the double burden of malnutrition, which is defined as the simultaneous observation of both undernutrition and overweight, obesity, and diet-related non-communicable diseases. The change in diets, and in particular the worldwide rise in the consumption of animal protein, also has had a strong negative impact on the environment, including loss in biodiversity, water resource depletion, deforestation, and an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is consensus that the transformation towards sustainable healthy diets is regarded as a key strategy to improve human nutrition and health, combat poverty and promote environmental sustainability. Sustainable healthy diets are defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) as “a dietary pattern that promotes all dimensions of individuals’ health and wellbeing; has low environmental pressure and impact; is accessible, affordable, safe and equitable; and is culturally acceptable†. Several studies show that adoption of diets which are characterized by low-meat content or are completely plant-based, result in improved health outcomes but might lead to an increase in cropland, freshwater and fertilizer use in several low-income countries. This suggests that there might be unintended consequences and trade-offs that need to be addressed by decisionmakers when promoting the uptake of healthy diets. The aim of this study is to assess the potential trade-offs between socio-economic, health and environmental impacts associated with a transition towards healthier diets in Bangladesh for the period 2022-2040. The forward-looking approach, which compares two healthy diet scenarios with a business-as usual future in which the diets follow a pattern consistent with the widely observed nutrition transition, will be useful to inform long-run national strategies such as Vision-2041, Bangladesh’s long-run plan to achieve high-income status and eradicate poverty by 2041, as well as the national food system transformation pathway that has been developed with support from the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS) initiative.