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Working Paper 03-19 - Medium-term projection for Belgium of the at-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion indicators based on EU-SILC
[Working Paper 03-19 - Prévisions à moyen terme des indicateurs de pauvreté et d’exclusion sociale basés sur les données EU-SILC]

Author

Listed:
  • Gijs Dekkers
  • Ekaterina Tarantchenko
  • Karel Van den Bosch

Abstract

The Federal Planning Bureau has developed within the Nowcasting project a dynamic microsimulation model for nowcasting and medium-term forecasts (currently up to 2020) of indicators of poverty and social exclusion. Key messages of this project are that nowcasting and medium-term forecasting are now possible using a fully dynamic microsimulation model. The provisional results of the model suggest that the overall poverty risk would remain stable, but that of the 65+ subpopulation would decrease over time, while that of the younger population would show a small increase. Furthermore, the increase of overall ine-quality would come to a halt and the level of inequality would become more stable. Finally, the very low work intensity rate would continue its decrease, driven by the continuing increase of the employment rate among the working-age population.

Suggested Citation

  • Gijs Dekkers & Ekaterina Tarantchenko & Karel Van den Bosch, 2019. "Working Paper 03-19 - Medium-term projection for Belgium of the at-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion indicators based on EU-SILC [Working Paper 03-19 - Prévisions à moyen terme des indicateurs ," Working Papers 201903, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:201903
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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