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Working Paper 10-16 - Projection of internal migration based on migration intensity and preferential flows

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Vandresse

Abstract

This Working Paper presents the projection methodology for internal migration, which is integrated from 2016 in the population projections published by the Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium. The methodology is based on migration intensity between districts, rather than on emigration rates from one district to another. With migration intensity, not only is the population of the departure district taken into account (population at risk of moving) but also the population of the destination district (as a proxy for attractiveness). The short-term evolution of migration intensity is in line with the most recent trends observed in a series of preferential migration flows between districts. In the long term, migration intensity is assumed to be constant.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Vandresse, 2016. "Working Paper 10-16 - Projection of internal migration based on migration intensity and preferential flows," Working Papers 201610, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:201610
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    File URL: https://www.plan.be/uploaded/documents/201610200929130.WP_1610_11293.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal migration; Migration intensity; population projections; Demography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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