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Are State Economic Conditions a Harbinger of a National Recession?

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Abstract

An analysis of state-level economic growth suggests that a certain number of contracting state economies could signal the start of a national recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin L. Kliesen & Cassandra Marks, 2022. "Are State Economic Conditions a Harbinger of a National Recession?," On the Economy 95501, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:l00001:95501
    Note: A follow-up blog post using new data through November is available: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/jan/are-state-economic-conditions-harbinger-recession-update
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    File URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/dec/are-state-economic-conditions-harbinger-national-recession
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    Keywords

    state economic conditions; recessions;

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