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Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance

Author

Listed:
  • Xudong An
  • Lawrence R. Cordell
  • Liang Geng
  • Keyoung Lee

Abstract

Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data, and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have significantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A difference-in-differences analysis shows how much the pandemic has exacerbated income and racial inequalities. We then find that government and private-sector forbearance programs have mitigated these inequalities in the near term, as lower-income and minority borrowers have taken up the short-term debt relief at higher rates. Finally, we examine modification options for an estimated 2.8 million loans in forbearance, most with terms expiring by mid-year 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell & Liang Geng & Keyoung Lee, 2021. "Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:90064
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2021.09
    Note: REVISED 2022-02-03
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William D. Larson & Christos Makridis & Chad Redmer, 2021. "Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    2. You Suk Kim & Donghoon Lee & Tess C. Scharlemann & James Vickery, 2022. "Intermediation Frictions in Debt Relief: Evidence from CARES Act Forbearance," Staff Reports 1035, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Stephen Malpezzi, 2021. "Housing “Affordability” and Responses During Times of Stress: A Brief Global Review," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_011, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage forbearance; inequality; COVID-19; loan modifications;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G50 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - General

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