IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/99057.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extend-and-Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market

Author

Abstract

We show that banks “extended-and-pretended” their impaired CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to avoid writing off their capital, leading to credit misallocation and a buildup of financial fragility. We detect this behavior using loan-level supervisory data on maturity extensions, bank assessment of credit risk, and realized defaults for loans to property owners and REITs. Extend-and-pretend crowds out new credit provision, leading to a 4.8–5.3 percent drop in CRE mortgage origination since 2022:Q1 and fuels the amount of CRE mortgages maturing in the near term. As of 2023:Q4, this “maturity wall” represents 27 percent of bank capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Crosignani & Saketh Prazad, 2024. "Extend-and-Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market," Staff Reports 1130, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:99057
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1130.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1130.html
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.59576/sr.1130?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Ruobing Han & James Liang, 2022. "How hybrid working from home works out," POID Working Papers 059, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. John Krainer & Pascal Paul, 2023. "Monetary Transmission through Bank Securities Portfolios," Working Paper Series 2023-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    5. Erica Xuewei Jiang & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2023. "Monetary Tightening, Commercial Real Estate Distress, and US Bank Fragility," NBER Working Papers 31970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. João Granja & Erica Xuewei Jiang & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2024. "Book Value Risk Management of Banks: Limited Hedging, HTM Accounting, and Rising Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 32293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gupta, Arpit & Mittal, Vrinda & Peeters, Jonas & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2022. "Flattening the curve: Pandemic-Induced revaluation of urban real estate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 594-636.
    8. David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein, 2024. "CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2023. "The remote work revolution: Impact on real estate values and the urban environment: 2023 AREUEA Presidential Address," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 7-48, January.
    10. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gilles Duranton & Jessie Handbury, 2023. "COVID and Cities, Thus Far," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(2), pages 6-52, October.
    2. Behrens, Kristian & Kichko, Sergei & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2024. "Working from home: Too much of a good thing?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2023. "The remote work revolution: Impact on real estate values and the urban environment: 2023 AREUEA Presidential Address," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 7-48, January.
    4. Thiemo Fetzer & Benjamin Guin & Felipe Netto & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-Backed Securities," CESifo Working Paper Series 11324, CESifo.
    5. Parkhomenko, Andrii & Delventhal, Matthew J, 2023. "Spatial Implications of Telecommuting in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt97q6c2rg, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Chakrabarti, Prasenjit & Kaur, Jasmeet, 2024. "Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 153-170.
    7. Fabiano Schivardi & Enrico Sette & Guido Tabellini, 2022. "Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 391-423.
    8. Pablo Zarate & Mathias Dolls & Steven J. Davis & Nicholas Bloom & Jose Maria Barrero & Cevat Giray Aksoy, 2024. "Why Does Working from Home Vary Across Countries and People?," NBER Working Papers 32374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2020. "The time has come for banks to say goodbye: New evidence on bank roles and duration effects in relationship terminations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Sawada, Yasuyuki & Suzuki, Michio, 2024. "The effect of bank recapitalization policy on credit allocation, investment, and productivity: Evidence from a banking crisis in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Diana Bonfim & Geraldo Cerqueiro & Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2023. "On-Site Inspecting Zombie Lending," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2547-2567, May.
    12. Christian Kagerl & Julia Starzetz, 2023. "Working from home for good? Lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and what this means for the future of work," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(1), pages 229-265, January.
    13. Viral V Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2021. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4090-4131.
    14. Bergeaud, Antonin & Eyméoud, Jean-Benoît & Garcia, Thomas & Henricot, Dorian, 2023. "Working from home and corporate real estate," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    15. Dan Andrews & Filippos Petroulakis, 2017. "Breaking the Shackles: Zombie Firms, Weak Banks and Depressed Restructuring in Europe," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1433, OECD Publishing.
    16. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    17. Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil K., 2021. "Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Mariassunta Giannetti & Andrei Simonov, 2013. "On the Real Effects of Bank Bailouts: Micro Evidence from Japan," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 135-167, January.
    19. Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2014. "Bank Heterogeneity and Interest Rate Setting: What Lessons Have We Learned since Lehman Brothers?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 753-778, June.
    20. Michele Mariani & Livia Ristuccia & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2023. "Propensity to work remotely in the Bank of Italy: a behavioural analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 753, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commercial real estate; zombie lending; financial fragility; credit misallocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:99057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.