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Extend-and-Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market

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Abstract

We show that banks “extended-and-pretended” their impaired CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to avoid writing off their capital, leading to credit misallocation and a buildup of financial fragility. We detect this behavior using loan-level supervisory data on maturity extensions, bank assessment of credit risk, and realized defaults for loans to property owners and REITs. Extend-and-pretend crowds out new credit provision, leading to a 4.8–5.3 percent drop in CRE mortgage origination since 2022:Q1 and fuels the amount of CRE mortgages maturing in the near term. As of 2023:Q4, this “maturity wall” represents 27 percent of bank capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Crosignani & Saketh Prazad, 2024. "Extend-and-Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market," Staff Reports 1130, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:99057
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1130
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commercial real estate; zombie lending; financial fragility; credit misallocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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