IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth Berko
  • John Clark

Abstract

We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that a 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (1987), or correlations with other factors causing returns, price pressures, or positive feedback strategies by foreign investors, and conclude that the available evidence is consistent with the base-broadening hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth Berko & John Clark, 1997. "Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico," Staff Reports 24, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr24.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Marco Pagano, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(2), pages 269-287.
    3. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. "International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-124, March.
    4. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    5. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    6. Kadlec, Gregory B & McConnell, John J, 1994. "The Effect of Market Segmentation and Illiquidity on Asset Prices: Evidence from Exchange Listings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 611-636, June.
    7. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    9. Pekka T. Hietala, 1989. "Asset Pricing in Partially Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Finnish Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 697-718, July.
    10. Allen & Franklin & Douglas Gale, "undated". "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices (Revision of 14-91) (Reprint 043)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. Claessens, S. & Gooptu, S., 1993. "Portfolio Investment in Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 228, World Bank.
    12. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, "undated". "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices (Revised: 2-92)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    13. John Mullin, 1993. "Emerging equity markets in the global economy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Sum), pages 54-83.
    14. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-226, May.
    15. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    16. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s," MPRA Paper 8196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 933-955, September.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:4:p:1025-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Leonardo Leiderman & Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects," Research Department Publications 4002, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    20. Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1986. "A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 897-914, September.
    21. Mr. Claudio M. Loser & Mr. Eliot Kalter, 1992. "Mexico: The Strategy to Achieve Sustained Economic Growth," IMF Occasional Papers 1992/002, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Bagwell, Laurie Simon, 1991. "Shareholder Heterogeneity: Evidence and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 218-221, May.
    23. Stijn Claessens & Moon-Whoan Rhee, 1994. "The Effect of Barriers to Equity Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 231-275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Warther, Vincent A., 1995. "Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 209-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong, Harrison & Kubik, Jeffrey D. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2008. "The only game in town: Stock-price consequences of local bias," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 20-37, October.
    2. Coen, Alain, 2001. "Home bias and international capital asset pricing model with human capital," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4-5), pages 497-513, December.
    3. Rene M. Stulz & Walter Wasserfallen, 1992. "Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions and Shareholder Wealth Maximization," NBER Working Papers 4217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sarkissian, Sergei & Schill, Michael J., 2004. "Are There Permanent Valuation Gains to Overseas Listing? Evidence from Market Sequencing and Selection," Working Papers 05-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    5. De la Torre, Augusto & Schmukler, Sergio, 2007. "Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 349, November.
    6. Miller, Darius P., 1999. "The market reaction to international cross-listings:: evidence from Depositary Receipts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 103-123, January.
    7. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds [The distribution of realized stock return volatility]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    8. Garg, Reetika & Dua, Pami, 2014. "Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows to India: Determinants and Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    9. Oxelheim, Lars, 2001. "Routes to equity market integration -- the interplay between politicians, investors and managers," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 183-211, April.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Ahmed Badawi & Anas Al Qudah & Waleed M. Rashideh, 2019. "Determinants of foreign portfolio investment in emerging markets: evidence from Saudi stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 779-794, October.
    12. Augusto de la Torre & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2007. "Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization : The Latin American Experience," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7187, September.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Schmukler, Sergio L, 2000. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 177-195, July.
    14. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    16. Thapa, Chandra & Poshakwale, Sunil S., 2012. "Country-specific equity market characteristics and foreign equity portfolio allocation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-211.
    17. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2014. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 490-542.
    18. Arturo Bris & Yrjö Koskinen & Mattias Nilsson, 2009. "The Euro and Corporate Valuations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(8), pages 3171-3209, August.
    19. Chakravarty, Sugato & Sarkar, Asani & Wu, Lifan, 1998. "Information asymmetry, market segmentation and the pricing of cross-listed shares: theory and evidence from Chinese A and B shares," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 325-356, December.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.