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Europe and the Maastricht challenge

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  • Michel Aglietta
  • Merih Uctum

Abstract

The uncertainty caused by the exchange rate crises of 1992-93 led to two questions: Is monetary union still feasible? What strategies are best for achieving convergence according to the Maastricht criteria? This article addresses these questions by examining the progress made by the five major European Union countries in satisfying the Maastricht criteria and the two crucial impediments facing these countries--disparities in real exchange rate convergence and fiscal imbalances--and alternative strategies to deal with these impediments. Overall, our analysis suggests that the prospects for monetary union are less gloomy than many analysts believe. We show that wide bands have been useful in limiting competitive disparities. We also argue for more general fiscal criteria set forth in the Maastricht treaty. Under these more general criteria, countries that reversed the path of debt accumulation and achieved a sustainable deficit would be admitted to the monetary union. Finally, under a multispeed transition, a small group of countries will form the initial core of the monetary union, and other countries will join over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Merih Uctum, 1996. "Europe and the Maastricht challenge," Research Paper 9616, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9616
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:econom:v:59:y:1992:i:236:p:383-401 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 2000. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: an Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May.
    3. F. Giavazzi & L. Spaventa, 1990. "The "New" EMS," Working Papers 86, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Michel Aglietta & Merih Uctum, 1995. "Fiscal consolidation in Europe," Research Paper 9519, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    1. Mariolis, Theodore & Papoulis, Κostas, 2010. "Δυναμική Του Δημοσίου Χρέους, Οικονομική Πολιτική Και Κοινωνική Συνοχή Στην Ελλάδα: Μία Σημείωση [Public debt dynamics, economic policy and social cohesion in Greece: a note]," MPRA Paper 28551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ünal, Emre, 2014. "Export Price Stability and Compatibility of Euro under the Export- Biased Productivity Growth in Turkey: A Criticism against the Maastricht Inflation Criterion," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 16-25.
    3. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.

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