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The evolution of Federal Reserve credibility: 1978-1984

Author

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  • Scott W. Barnhart
  • Gikas A. Hardouvelis

Abstract

A random coefficients Kalman filter model of the response of commodity prices to weekly M1 announcements indicates a gradual evolution in the credibility of the Federal Reserve as an inflation fighter. The October 1979 announcement of a change in monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation did not result in an immediate increase in credibility, and the October 1982 announcement of a policy reversal did not diminish credibility. Credibility does vary with the underlying rate of inflation, which shows that markets pay attention to policy results not simply policy announcements. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.
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Suggested Citation

  • Scott W. Barnhart & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1988. "The evolution of Federal Reserve credibility: 1978-1984," Research Paper 8809, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:8809
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    Cited by:

    1. Issler, João Victor & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2019. "Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 812, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Granville, Brigitte & Zeng, Ning, 2019. "Time variation in inflation persistence: New evidence from modelling US inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-39.
    3. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    4. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caroline Cabral Machado, 2013. "Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 469-492, August.
    5. Willem THORBECKE, 2017. "The Effect of the Fed's Large-scale Asset Purchases on Inflation Expectations," Discussion papers 17097, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Willem THORBECKE, 2018. "Nonfarm Employment, Inflationary Expectations, and Monetary Policy after the Global Financial Crisis," Discussion papers 18076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Willem Thorbecke & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Choosing between the Inflation‐Revelation and Excess Sensitivity Hypotheses," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1114-1122, April.
    8. V. Vance Roley & Simon M. Wheatley, 1990. "Temporal Variation in the Interest-Rate Response to Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 3471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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