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Recent Shifts Seen in Consumers’ Public Policy Expectations

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Abstract

In this post we examine changes in households’ beliefs following the release of the December 2024 SCE Public Policy Survey, finding large shifts in consumer expectations about future changes in fiscal policy. Households assign higher likelihoods to a variety of tax cuts and to reductions in a range of transfer programs, while they assign lower likelihoods to tax hikes and expansions in entitlement programs. We do not find these sharp changes translate into meaningful shifts in median households’ near-term expectations about the evolution of the overall economy, nor do they appear to have significantly affected median near-term expectations about the household’s own income and spending growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Delehanty & Gizem Koşar & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2025. "Recent Shifts Seen in Consumers’ Public Policy Expectations," Liberty Street Economics 20250411, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:99817
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer expectations; election; public policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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