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U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen by Less Than U.S. Data Indicate

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Abstract

With new tariffs on China back in the headlines, this post seeks to offer some perspective on how much China’s exports have really been affected by multiple rounds of U.S. tariffs and export restrictions over the past seven years. The key takeaway is that U.S. imports from China have decreased by much less than has been reported in official U.S. statistics. As a result, the recent tariff increase on China could have a larger impact on the U.S. economy than is suggested by official U.S. data on the China import share, especially if favorable tariff treatment for direct-to-consumer imports is ended.

Suggested Citation

  • Hunter L. Clark, 2025. "U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen by Less Than U.S. Data Indicate," Liberty Street Economics 20250226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:99617
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/02/u-s-imports-from-china-have-fallen-by-less-than-u-s-data-indicate/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; trade; tariff;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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