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Will the Moderation in Wage Growth Continue?

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Abstract

Wage growth has moderated notably following its post-pandemic surge, but it remains strong compared to the wage growth prevailing during the low-inflation pre-COVID years. Will the moderation continue, or will it stall? And what does it say about the current state of the labor market? In this post, we use our own measure of wage growth persistence – called Trend Wage Inflation (TWIn in short) – to look at these questions. Our main finding is that, after a rapid decline from 7 percent at its peak in late 2021 to around 5 percent in early 2023, TWin has changed little in recent months, indicating that the moderation in nominal wage growth may have stalled. We also show that our measure of trend wage inflation and labor market tightness comove very closely. Hence, the recent behavior of TWIn is consistent with a still-tight labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Audoly & Augustin Belin & Martín Almuzara & Davide Melcangi, 2024. "Will the Moderation in Wage Growth Continue?," Liberty Street Economics 20240307, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:97931
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage growth; persistence; industries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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