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The Post-Pandemic r

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Abstract

The debate about the natural rate of interest, or r*, sometimes overlooks the point that there is an entire term structure of r* measures, with short-run estimates capturing current economic conditions and long-run estimates capturing more secular factors. The whole term structure of r* matters for policy: shorter run measures are relevant for gauging how restrictive or expansionary current policy is, while longer run measures are relevant when assessing terminal rates. This two-post series covers the evolution of both in the aftermath of the pandemic, with today’s post focusing especially on long-run measures and tomorrow’s post on short-run r*.

Suggested Citation

  • Katie Baker & Logan Casey & Marco Del Negro & Aidan Gleich & Ramya Nallamotu, 2023. "The Post-Pandemic r," Liberty Street Economics 20230809, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:96542
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    File URL: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/08/the-post-pandemic-r/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    r*; r-star; post-pandemic; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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