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Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses

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Abstract

News headlines highlighting the loss of at least 30 million jobs (so far) underscore the massive shock that has hit the U.S. economy and the dislocation, hardship, and stress it has caused for so many American workers. But how accurately does this number actually capture the number of net job losses? In this post, we look at some of the statistical anomalies and quirks in the weekly claims series and offer a guide to interpreting these numbers. What we find is that the relationship between jobless claims and payroll employment for the month can vary substantially, depending on the nature, timing, and persistence of the disaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Bram & Fatih Karahan, 2020. "Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses," Liberty Street Economics 20200507a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87918
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomaz Cajner & Andrew Figura & Brendan M. Price & David Ratner & Alison E. Weingarden, 2020. "Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    initial claims; pandemic; coronavirus; COVID-19; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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