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A Time-Series Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates

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Abstract

The previous post in this series discussed several possible explanations for the trend decline in U.S. real interest rates since the late 1990s. We noted that while interest rates have generally come down over the past two decades, this decline has been more pronounced for Treasury securities. The conclusion that we draw from this evidence is that the convenience associated with the safety and liquidity embedded in Treasuries is an important driver of the secular (long-term) decline in Treasury yields. In this post and the next, we provide an overview of the two complementary empirical strategies we adopt to extract the trends in real interest rates and quantify their driving factors. Much more detail on all of this can be found in our recently published Brookings paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandyn Bok & Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "A Time-Series Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates," Liberty Street Economics 20180206, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87239
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    r star; convenience yields; safety; liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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