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How Do People Revise Their Inflation Expectations?

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Abstract

The New York Fed started releasing results from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) three years ago, in June 2013. The SCE is a monthly, nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. Its goal, as described in a series of Liberty Street Economics posts, is to collect timely and high-quality information on consumer expectations about a broad range of topics, covering both macroeconomic variables and the households' own situation. In this post, we look at what drives changes in consumer inflation expectations. Do people respond to changes in recent realized inflation, and to expected and realized changes in prices of salient individual commodities?like gasoline? Understanding what drives inflation expectations is important for the conduct of monetary policy, since it improves a central bank?s ability to assess its own credibility and to evaluate the impact of its policy decisions and communication strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "How Do People Revise Their Inflation Expectations?," Liberty Street Economics 20160822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87150
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2022. "Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 22-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "Anchoring inflation expectations in the face of oil shocks & in the proximity of ZLB: A tale of two targeters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Shahzad, Umer & Orsi, Bianca & Sharma, Gagan Deep, 2024. "Managing inflation expectations and the efficiency of monetary policy responses to energy crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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