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How Do Survey- and Market-Based Expectations of the Policy Rate Differ?

Author

Listed:
  • Bonni Brodsky
  • Marco Del Negro
  • Joseph Fiorica
  • Eric LeSueur
  • Ari Morse
  • Anthony P. Rodrigues

Abstract

Over the past year, market pricing on interest rate derivatives linked to the federal funds rate has suggested a significantly lower expected path of the policy rate than responses to the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) and Survey of Market Participants (SMP). However, this gap narrowed considerably from December 2015 to January 2016, before widening slightly at longer horizons in March. This post argues that the narrowing between December and January was mostly the result of survey respondents placing greater weight on lower rate outcomes, while the subsequent widening between January and March likely reflects an increased demand for insurance against states of the world where the policy rate remains at very low levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonni Brodsky & Marco Del Negro & Joseph Fiorica & Eric LeSueur & Ari Morse & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2016. "How Do Survey- and Market-Based Expectations of the Policy Rate Differ?," Liberty Street Economics 20160407, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87115
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Dr. Basil Guggenheim & Dr. Matthias Jüttner, 2018. "What do Swiss franc Libor futures really tell us?," Working Papers 2018-06, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Leo Krippner & Michael Callaghan, 2016. "Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy rate; survey expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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