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Comparing Multi-State Kalman Filter and ARIMA forecasts: an application to the money multiplier

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Listed:
  • Rik Hafer
  • Scott E. Hein
  • Clemens J. M. Kool

Abstract

This paper derives one-month ahead forecasts of the money (M I) multiplier using the Multi-State Kalman Filter and Box-Jenkins ARIMA methods. A comparison of the forecasts far the period 1980-82 reveals that the Multi-State Kalman Filter procedure was generally superior to the ARIMA procedure In terms of most summary statistics. The superiority is traced to the turbulent period of 1980-81. This paper also compares aggregate and component forecasts of the multiplier. The aggregate Multi-State Kalman Filter was the most accurate in predicting the one-month ahead money multiplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Rik Hafer & Scott E. Hein & Clemens J. M. Kool, 1985. "Comparing Multi-State Kalman Filter and ARIMA forecasts: an application to the money multiplier," Working Papers 1985-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1985-001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johannes, James M. & Rasche, Robert H., 1979. "Predicting the money multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 301-325, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Onomo, Julie, 2018. "Analyse du multiplicateur monétaire en zone CEMAC [Money multiplier analysis in CEMAC subregion]," MPRA Paper 116431, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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