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First-time home buyers and residential investment volatility

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  • Jonas D. M. Fisher
  • Martin Gervais

Abstract

Like other macroeconomic variables, residential investment has become much less volatile since the mid-1980s (recent experience notwithstanding.) This paper explores the role of structural change in this decline. Since the early 1980s there have been many changes in the underlying structure of the economy, including those in the mortgage market which have made it easier to acquire a home. We examine how these changes affect residential investment volatility in a life-cycle model consistent with micro evidence on housing choices. We find that a decline in the rate of household formation, increased delay in marriage, and an increase in the cross-sectional variance of earnings drive the decline in volatility. Our findings provide support for the view that the ?Great Moderation? in aggregate fluctuations is not just due to smaller aggregate shocks, but is driven at least in part by structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas D. M. Fisher & Martin Gervais, 2007. "First-time home buyers and residential investment volatility," Working Paper Series WP-07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-07-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Forecasting US real private residential fixed investment using a large number of predictors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1557-1580, December.
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    3. Cellmer Radosław & Bełej Mirosław & Cichulska Aneta, 2019. "Identification of Cause-and-Effect Relationships in the Real Estate Market Using the VAR Model and the Granger Test," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 27(4), pages 85-95, December.
    4. repec:esx:essedp:712 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. João Miguel Ejarque & Joachim Borg Kristensen, 2013. "Rent Control and the Housing Expenditure Share," CAM Working Papers 2013-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    6. repec:wyi:journl:002170 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stephen Mak & Lennon Choy & Winky Ho, 2012. "Region-specific Estimates of the Determinants of Real Estate Investment in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 741-755, March.
    8. Iacoviello, Matteo & Pavan, Marina, 2013. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-238.
    9. Yu Ren & Yufei Yuan, 2014. "Why the Housing Sector Leads the Whole Economy: The Importance of Collateral Constraints and News Shocks," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 323-341, February.
    10. Halket, Jonathan R & Pignatti, Matteo, 2012. "Housing tenure choices with private information," Economics Discussion Papers 8961, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    11. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2014. "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 345-366, April.
    12. Marina Pavan & Matteo Iacoviello, 2008. "Household Volatility, Household Debt and the Great Moderation," 2008 Meeting Papers 903, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Piotr Lis, 2015. "Relationships between the finance system and housing markets," Working papers wpaper99, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    14. repec:esx:essedp:717 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nicholas Apergis & Ghassen El Montasser & Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere & Ahdi N. Ajmi & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Dutch Disease Effect of Oil Rents on Agriculture Value Added in MENA Countries," Working Papers 201408, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Yu Ren & Yufei Yuan, 2013. "Why The House Sector Leads The Whole Economy: the Importance of Collateral Constraints and News Shocks," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.

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