IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/94917.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization

Author

Abstract

We add to recent evidence on deindustrialization and document a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time. We assess whether these new features of structural change can be explained by a dynamic open economy model with two primary driving forces, sector-biased productivity growth and sectoral trade integration. We calibrate the model to the same countries used to document our patterns. We find that sector-biased productivity growth is important for deindustrialization by reducing the relative price of manufacturing to services, and sectoral trade integration is important for industry polarization through increased specialization. The interaction of these two driving forces is also essential.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Sposi & Kei-Mu Yi & Jing Zhang, 2021. "Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization," Working Paper Series WP 2022-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:94917
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2022-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2022-44
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21033/wp-2022-44?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Restuccia, Diego & Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2008. "Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 234-250, March.
    2. Marcel Timmer & Abdul A. Erumban & Reitze Gouma & Bart Los & Umed Temurshoev & Gaaitzen J. de Vries & I–aki Arto & Valeria Andreoni AurŽlien Genty & Frederik Neuwahl & JosŽ M. Rueda?Cantuche & Joseph , 2012. "The World Input-Output Database (WIOD): Contents, Sources and Methods," IIDE Discussion Papers 20120401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    3. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aristizabal-Ramirez, Maria & Leahy, John & Tesar, Linda L., 2023. "A north-south model of structural change and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 77-102.
    2. Hagen Kruse & Emmanuel Mensah & Kunal Sen & Gaaitzen Vries, 2023. "A Manufacturing (Re)Naissance? Industrialization in the Developing World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 439-473, June.
    3. Ippei Fujiwara & Kiminori Matsuyama, 2024. "A Technology-Gap Model of 'Premature' Deindustrialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(11), pages 3714-3745, November.
    4. Tasso Adamopoulos & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Trade Risk and Food Security," Working Papers 2024-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Feb 2024.
    5. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    6. Duc Nguyen, 2022. "Heterogeneous Paths of Structural Transformation," Working Papers tecipa-742, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2020. "Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1400-1443.
    2. Pothen, Frank & Tovar Reaños, Miguel Angel, 2018. "The Distribution of Material Footprints in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 237-251.
    3. Harald Fadinger & Christian Ghiglino & Mariya Teteryatnikova, 2015. "Productivity, Networks and Input-Output Structure," 2015 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Fadinger, Harald & Ghiglino, Christian & Teteryatnikova, Mariya, 2015. "Income differences and input-output structure," Working Papers 15-11, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    5. Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Evolving comparative advantage, sectoral linkages, and structural change," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 75-87.
    6. Fadinger, Harald & Ghiglino, Christian & Teteryatnikova, Mariya, 2015. "Income differences and input-output structure," Working Papers 15-11, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Erwin Diewert, W. & Zellner, Arnold, 2011. "Introduction to measurement with theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 1-5, March.
    8. Simeon D. Alder, 2016. "In the Wrong Hands: Complementarities, Resource Allocation, and TFP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 199-241, January.
    9. Muhammad Ali Chaudhary & Eatzaz Ahmad & Abid A. Burki & Mushtaq A. Khan, 1999. "Industrial Sector Input Demand Responsiveness and Policy Interventions," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1083-1100.
    10. Thomas F. Crossley & Hamish W. Low, 2011. "Is The Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution Constant?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 87-105, February.
    11. Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2013. "Quality, Quantity, and Nutritional Impacts of Rice Price Changes in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 329-340.
    12. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.
    13. Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Stiegert, Kyle W. & Bozic, Marin, 2013. "On Endogeneity Of Retail Market Power In An Equilibrium Analysis: A Control Function Approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149830, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.
    15. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:083 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Löschel, Andreas & Pothen, Frank & Schymura, Michael, 2015. "Peeling the onion: Analyzing aggregate, national and sectoral energy intensity in the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 63-75.
    17. David Weiskopf, 2000. "The Impact of Omitting Promotion Variables on Simulation Experiments," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 159-166.
    18. Rodrigo M. Leifert & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2015. "Linear Symmetric "Fat Taxes": Evidence from Brazil," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 634-666.
    19. Mazzocchi, Mario, 2006. "Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2191-2205, May.
    20. Storesletten, Kjetil & Zhao, Bo & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2020. "Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis’ Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 14964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. James A. Chalfant & Richard S. Gray & Kenneth J. White, 1991. "Evaluating Prior Beliefs in a Demand System: The Case of Meat Demand in Canada," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 476-490.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Change; International Trade; Sector Biased Productivity Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:94917. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.