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Long-term evidence on the Tobin and Fisher effects: a new approach

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Abstract

Using a new approach, we reexamine the empirical evidence on the long-term interactions between inflation and real variables. We find, using over 100 years of U.S. data, that in the long run the effect of inflation on investment and output is positive (a \"Tobin type effect\") and the investment rate, and hence the real interest rate, are not independent of inflation. However, over the full sample at least, the variability of the innovations to the stochastic inflation trend is small relative to the variability of the innovations to the productivity and fiscal trends. We conclude that models generating a reverse-Tobin effect, including standard real-business-cycle and endogenous growth models that incorporate money, may not be the best models for understanding the long-term real effects of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1996. "Long-term evidence on the Tobin and Fisher effects: a new approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 566, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:566
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1998. "The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. James B. Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Nov), pages 57-77.
    3. James B. Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "Monetary steady states in a low real interest rate economy," Working Papers 1994-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Bullard, James & Russell, Steven, 1999. "An empirically plausible model of low real interest rates and unbacked government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 477-508, December.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Taxation;

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