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Trade policies and fiscal devaluations

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Abstract

Fiscal devaluations—an increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsidies (VP)—have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed and the tax pass-through is large, VP is contractionary and IX provides a modest boost. In our medium-scale DSGE model, both features are crucial in accounting for Germany’s underperformance in response to VP in 2007. These findings cast doubt on fiscal devaluations as a cyclical stabilization tool when monetary policy is constrained.

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  • Christopher J. Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2022. "Trade policies and fiscal devaluations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1347, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1347
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2022.1347
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    Cited by:

    1. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Gilchrist, Simon & Schoenle, Raphael & Sim, Jae & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2023. "Financial heterogeneity and monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 21-40.
    3. Fève, Patrick & Cahn, Christophe & Matheron, Julien, 2024. "The Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Rebalancing in a Heterogeneous-Agent Model," TSE Working Papers 24-1550, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Policy; Fiscal Policy; Exchange Rates; Fiscal Devaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence

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