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Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?

Author

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  • A. Ronald Gallant
  • Mohammad Jahan-Parvar
  • Hening Liu

Abstract

We use the Bayesian method introduced by Gallant and McCulloch (2009) to estimate consumption-based asset pricing models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate consumption data, our estimation provides statistical support for asset pricing models with smooth ambiguity. Statistical model comparison shows that models with ambiguity, learning and time-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the estimated models.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Ronald Gallant & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Hening Liu, 2018. "Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1221, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1221
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1221
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    1. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2018. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 945-993, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiaki Hara, 2023. "Arrow-Pratt-Type Measure of Ambiguity Aversion," KIER Working Papers 1097, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jin, Yurong & Yan, Jingzhou & Yan, Qianhui, 2024. "Unraveling ESG Ambiguity, Price Reaction, and Trading Volume," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. David Alaminos & Ignacio Esteban & M. Belén Salas, 2023. "Neural networks for estimating Macro Asset Pricing model in football clubs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 57-75, April.
    5. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    6. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Felix Matthys & Emilio Osambela & Ronnie Sircar, 2021. "When Uncertainty and Volatility Are Disconnected: Implications for Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Sujoy Mukerji & Han N. Ozsoylev & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2023. "Trading Ambiguity: A Tale Of Two Heterogeneities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1127-1164, August.
    8. Guillemin, François, 2020. "Governance by depositors, bank runs and ambiguity aversion," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Eliciting ambiguity with mixing bets," Papers 1902.07447, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    10. Chiaki Hara & Toshiki Honda, 2022. "Implied Ambiguity: Mean-Variance Inefficiency and Pricing Errors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4246-4260, June.
    11. Makarov, Dmitry, 2021. "Optimal portfolio under ambiguous ambiguity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    12. Hening Liu & Yuzhao Zhang, 2022. "Financial Uncertainty with Ambiguity and Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2120-2140, March.
    13. Liu, Liu, 2022. "Learning about the persistence of recessions under ambiguity aversion," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    14. Yang, Shuwen & Aretz, Kevin & Liu, Hening & Zhang, Yuzhao, 2022. "Consumption risks in option returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 285-302.
    15. Fulop, Andras & Heng, Jeremy & Li, Junye & Liu, Hening, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of long-run risk models using sequential Monte Carlo," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 62-84.
    16. Andras Fulop & Jeremy Heng & Junye Li, 2022. "Efficient Likelihood-based Estimation via Annealing for Dynamic Structural Macrofinance Models," Papers 2201.01094, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Bayesian estimation; equity premiums; Markov-switching; long-run risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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