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Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities

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Abstract

An inverted yield curve—defined as an episode in which long-maturity Treasury yields fall below their short-maturity counterparts—is a powerful near-term predictor of recessions. While most previous studies focus on the predictive power of the spread between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields, Engstrom and Sharpe (2019) have recently shown that a measure of the nominal near-term forward spread (NTFS), given by the difference between the six-quarter-ahead forward Treasury yield and the current three-month Treasury bill rate, dominates long-term spreads as a leading indicator of economic activity.

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  • Andrea Ajello & Luca Benzoni & Makena Schwinn & Yannick Timmer & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities," FEDS Notes 2022-07-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-07-12
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3175
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    Cited by:

    1. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    2. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    3. Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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